One of the most common mistakes in the market is trying to catch the bottom of a falling stock.
People often think,

“This stock has dropped a lot, it must bounce from here.”
I’ve seen this behavior countless times.

But here’s the truth:

There is only one real bottom,
and 90% of the time, the point where you say “this is the bottom” — is not.

No, you didn’t hear that wrong.
Trying to catch the bottom is no different than fortune telling.
Why?
Because most falling stocks keep making new lows.
And once they do, they stay there for months or years.

Congrats — you’ve just become a silent partner in a company that doesn’t even pay you dividends.

📉 The Math Doesn’t Lie: There’s Only One Bottom

When a stock starts dropping, amateur investors instantly ask:

“Is this the bottom?”

But statistically, your odds of catching the actual bottom are less than 10%.

Why?

Because there’s only one true bottom.

• The stock falls from $100 to $80 → you say “This must be the bottom.”
• Then it hits $70 → “Okay this is definitely it.”
• Then it drops to $50 → “There’s no way it goes lower.”
• You buy — and it crashes to $30.

Now you’re stuck. You’ll wait months, maybe years.
And if you kept averaging down along the way, your capital is drained.

If a stock is making new lows, odds are it will keep falling.

Because:

• Sellers are still in control
• Buyers aren’t strong enough
• The downtrend is still intact

There’s a reason they say:

“Trying to catch a falling knife usually ends up cutting your hand.”

❌ Just Because It’s Cheap Doesn’t Mean It’ll Go Up

There is no rule that says cheap stocks must recover.
Stocks in a downtrend usually fall further.
The market doesn’t care what you think.

Unless the price shows strong signs of reversal,
buying “just because it dropped a lot” is like fishing with a blindfold on — you’re just hoping for luck.

🧨 Trying to Call the Top? Same Mistake.

This logic applies not just to bottoms — but also to tops.

Let’s say a stock goes from $50 to $80.
You sell because “this must be the top.”
Then it runs to $120.

Now you’re angry. You say “This time it has to crash.”
It hits $150.

You FOMO back in — and now it starts to fall.

You were supposed to sell after the trend showed weakness — not during the rally.

If you bought a stock at $10, and it has the potential to hit $100,
but you sell at $20 just because “it’s gone up too much” —
then your odds of ever seeing that $100 are zero.

Simple math.

The Core Problem: You’re Trying to Predict Reversals

Stop trying to predict when the market will turn.
The market doesn’t follow your logic — it follows supply and demand.

✅ The Solution: Follow the Trend — Don’t Predict It

If you want to be a successful trader, learn to move with the trend.

• Instead of buying a falling stock, put it on your watchlist
• Wait until it shows signs of an uptrend — then enter
• Trust me, the stock isn’t going anywhere. There will always be opportunities.

Trying to guess the top? Same idea.

• Don’t sell just because it hit a number
• Wait for the trend to reverse
• Instead of saying “$80 is the top,”
  wait until it drops to $75 — then consider selling

Nothing that’s rising should be sold.

Final Word:

Stop playing fortune teller with your own money.
Trying to catch bottoms and tops is the fastest way to lose.

Instead, learn how to be on the winning side —
by reacting to price, not predicting it.