Most investors believe that the key to making money is correctly predicting where the market is headed.
They spend hours analyzing charts, watching economy channels, asking so-called experts, and in the simplest terms —
They want to buy if the market will rise, and sell if it’s going to fall.
TV pundits talk for hours about:
“Where is the dollar going?”
“What will gold do?”
“Is the stock market headed up or down?”
They even do live broadcasts from the Grand Bazaar,
as if gold prices are still determined there —
or as if someone who’s sold jewelry for 30 years can somehow predict the future price of gold.
The Truth: Predicting Market Direction Is Impossible — And Unnecessary
You’ve probably seen plenty of people on social media or TV who claim they can consistently predict market direction.
In theory, these people should be among the wealthiest individuals in the world.
Of course, they’re not —
because nobody can predict the market.
Sure, in a two-option game (up or down), half the guesses will be “right” on any given day —
but that doesn’t make it predictable.
Why You Can’t Predict the Market
Retail investors never get access to market-moving news at the same time as hedge funds or institutional players.
So by the time news hits your screen, the move has already happened.
Even if you analyze economic data correctly,
you still can’t know when your analysis will play out —
or how the market will react when it does.
You might be “right,”
but if your timing is off,
your account will still bleed.
Even Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,
was almost wiped out — simply because it took longer than expected for the collapse to begin.
Wrong Prediction + Emotion = Disaster
Those who try to predict the market — and get it wrong — often refuse to admit it.
They get emotional and double down, which leads to major losses.
Those who predict correctly by chance?
They’re no different.
They think it’s skill, but it’s just luck — and eventually that luck runs out.
So What’s the Solution?
If predicting the market is pointless, how do you actually make money?
You don’t make money by trying to be right about the market’s direction.
You make money by managing your positions based on the direction the market is actually going.
Consistently profitable traders aren’t obsessed with calling tops and bottoms.
They have pre-defined strategies for what to do when the market moves, not for where it might go.
They use tools like:
- ✅ Risk-reward ratios
- ✅ Stop-loss orders
- ✅ Technical and fundamental analysis
- ✅ And most importantly: discipline and patience.
They follow their plan. No ego. No emotion. Just execution.
Final Word
We’ll go deeper into all these tools and techniques in future posts.
But for now, remember this:
Trying to predict the market is a waste of time.
Accept that you can’t control the market —
and start focusing on what you can control:
your reaction, your plan, and your risk.